Old Enough

In 2023, the median age in the United States was 38.5 years. That is more than double the country that has the youngest median age of 15.1 years which is Niger. It seems the richer the nation is the older its population.

If you look at Europe, Iceland, which I consider a European nation, is the youngest at 37.8 years and Monaco is the oldest in Europe and the world at 56.2. The number one reason that the U.S. is so young as compared to Europe and the rest of the developed world is immigration. The greatest reason our population has grown is because of newcomers coming into the country.

Immigrants accounted for 84% of the 1% growth rate in 2023. Native born Americans have a falling birthrate and a rising deathrate due to age. My age is nearly double that of the U.S. median. You can’t run an economy with just old people.

Yet if the Trump administration has aggressive enforcement you may see up to 650,000 immigrants leave in the first year. That will certainly put an upward pressure on wages and inflation. There will be less taxes collected on every level if that were to occur. Social Security would also have less money being contributed.

States like California and New York would have seen their populations change even more drastically without immigration. Seventeen states had more people die than were born. Florida is estimated to have 747,000 undocumented migrants that paid $1.8 billion in state and local taxes, proportionately per capita contributing the same as native born Americans.

The State of Florida will be particularly hard hit if there is vigorous enforcement. Three of the largest industries in the state…construction, agriculture, and hospitality…rely heavily on undocumented immigrants to fill jobs. If only 10% or 20% of them were to leave, it would lead to shortages of workers and drive-up costs and depress tax revenue.

Japan and Italy are two of the advanced nations with the oldest populations. Within a decade, there will be severe labor shortages there. Both governments deter new immigrants from entering whether legally or not. What happens to them may be a harbinger for the United States.

By 2033, the Social Security system will only be able to afford to pay 80% of the benefit cost derived under the formula. For the more affluent that may be fine but, for the majority of beneficiaries for whom the program is their major source of income, it will be devastating. We need more people paying into the system and that can only be immigrants because of the native-born low birthrates.

One in five Americans receive Social Security benefits. Do you think any politician is likely to cut the deficit there? I don’t believe that and I know no one who does.