Ron DeSantis Can Be The Next President

There has been much speculation that Ron DeSantis in the presidential sweepstakes will wilt under the lights of the required retail politics in New Hampshire and Iowa. He is just not personable enough goes the theory. All of that may be true, but I will give you a brief tale of two politicians.

I met the now governor twice when he was a congressman, and I was a city commissioner. I was in his Washington office speaking to him on urban issues. He could not have been less personable or, for that matter, interested in the subject.

I also met Congressman Crist in Washington. I never even got to his office because he had me in the hallway and chatted with me for over a half hour. Crist was well versed on my issues and was eager to trade ideas. The guy is a born retail politician.

Governor DeSantis just beat Crist by 19 points. What that blowout victory tells me is DeSantis can win a race in New Hampshire and Iowa against a personable politician or at least survive until the larger state primaries when advertising and news interviews are the main avenue for voter information. He has a much better shot of success if the Republicans change their primary order to that of the one proposed by President Biden for the Democrats.

There is no better retail pol than Biden, and he was 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire. That is why he wants to change the first primary state to be South Carolina where his campaign was rescued in 2020. If I were DeSantis, I would be rooting for that order also.

Biden wants to have Black voters have more of a voice early in the process. DeSantis may benefit from having the white rural Republican hard-core conservatives voting early in a primary. When the choice in the primary is between former President Trump and Governor DeSantis, they may break and vote more reliably for the latter over the former. DeSantis gives a big nod to the social issues and therefore is a palpable alternative to Trump.

There will be more than just DeSantis and Trump in the Republican primary. The governor needs to knock out the others quickly. Trump works best in a crowded field.

DeSantis will be able to point to six years of steady leadership over Trumps’ four years of chaos. DeSantis will also benefit from Fox News if the network continues to prefer him to the former guy. In a larger media market like South Carolina, Fox News will carry weight with Republican voters.

Iowa and New Hampshire primary voters want to meet every candidate and discuss policies with each. They tend to pick winners that can’t go on to win in the general. Just ask Presidents Buttigieg and Sanders who were the winners in 2020. (Trump as the incumbent that year won both states overwhelmingly.)

DeSantis has all the charm of the guy who knew the answers in every subject in high school. He was not beloved. Yet whether you like DeSantis or not he can point to running a competent administration.

You cannot count out Trump. His adherents believe he is the 2nd coming. As we have just seen in the midterms, the Republicans behave as lemmings. They back his candidates that can’t win and go down to defeat. Will they continue to do so by backing him?

Here is the thing though. Trump, if nominated, will not win. As we have seen in the midterms, Independents and even some Republicans will not vote for him or his surrogates. If DeSantis were the nominee, more of those voters would come back to the Republican fold. There then is an even chance DeSantis would be the next president.